Marist Polls: Harris Leads Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin; Tied with Trump in Pennsylvania

 by Nook Studio  - 09/19/24 12:01 AM ET

Based on new Marist battleground state polls, Vice President Harris edges former President Trump by 5 points in Michigan, leads by a slightly smaller margin in Wisconsin, and is tied in Pennsylvania.

Fifty-two percent of likely voters in Michigan supported Harris, while 47 percent said they supported Trump. In Wisconsin, 50 percent of likely voters supported Harris versus 49 percent who backed Trump.

Each received 49 percent of the support from likely voters in Pennsylvania, the state-by-state battleground survey says.

In the battleground state of Michigan, Harris's lead was narrowed among independents - 49 percent favoring her, 47 percent Trump. Trump led among white voters, 50 percent Harris, while Harris led among Black voters by a 77 percent to 21 percent margin over Trump.

The Michigan electorate was split into male and female voters, who favored Harris 52 percent to 47 percent, while men preferred Trump over Harris 52 percent to 47 percent. In Wisconsin, independents were the only category where Harris had a bigger lead over Trump, outperforming him 51 percent to his 47 percent.

Harris led Trump among whites, 50 percent to 49 percent, and had 56 percent compared to Trump's 43 percent of nonwhite voters.

Similarly, Harris led Trump in Wisconsin over men and women. He led the way among women, 56 to 43 percent, over Trump, and was ahead of Harris, 53 percent to 45 percent, among men.

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According to the survey, Trump leads Harris 49-45 percent among independents in Pennsylvania.

He also has a narrow edge over her among white voters, 51-48 percent, while Harris leads 59-38 percent among nonwhite voters.

The gap between male and female voters in Pennsylvania shows that Trump leads Harris, 54 to 44, among men, while Harris leads Trump, 55 to 43, among women.

Another recent survey, looking at the same states, indicated the vice president leads the former president in all three battlegrounds. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday had Harris ahead of Trump by 6 points in Pennsylvania, by 5 points in Michigan, and by one point in Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, the Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate polling shows that the race is much tighter in all three swing states. The aggregation shows Harris to be up 1.4 percentage points in Michigan, Harris to be up 2.6 percentage points in Wisconsin, and Harris to be up 1 percentage point in Pennsylvania.

The Marist surveys were conducted from Sept. 12-17. The Michigan survey included 1,354 adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The Wisconsin survey included 1,431 adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. The Pennsylvania survey included 1,754 adults and has a margin of effort of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.